02. Randomized Experiments: The Most Reliable Way to Eliminate Bias

Chapter 1 showed that a naive comparison decomposes into a true effect plus a bias term, and that the bias term exists only because treatment was correlated with a user's pre-existing type. This chapter works through exactly how randomization severs that correlation, walks a full 3-arm coupon experiment end to end, and covers the checks that separate a trustworthy randomized result from one that quietly wasn't.

Recap: Last Chapter's Key Formula

Chapter 1 landed on one decomposition worth carrying forward: any naive comparison between a treated group and an untreated group equals the true effect on the treated, plus a bias term coming from the two groups being different kinds of users to begin with...

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