03. Numbers Wobble: The One Formula That's Dangerous Not to Know

Chapter 2 ended with the +$29 discount-coupon effect and one open question: how do we know that number isn't just noise from one particular two-week window? Answering it needs exactly one formula β€” simple enough to compute by hand, and dangerous enough, when ignored, to have earned its own nickname in the statistics literature.

The Secret Behind Your Top-Converting Product

Suppose you rank every product by its purchase conversion rate β€” purchases divided by views β€” and look at the top 1%...

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